Azerbaijan: wind and solar output set to rise to 4.4 TWh in 2030, 2027 budget forecast shows

Electricity output from Azerbaijan's wind and solar power plants is set to rise from 3,009 GWh in 2027 to 4,408 GWh in 2030, according to the medium-term macroeconomic forecasts accompanying the draft 2027 state budget, cited on 4 November by the Trend news agency. Over the same period, gas consumption by thermal power plants would fall by roughly a third.

The figures. The biggest jump is expected in 2028, when wind and solar output would reach 4,384 GWh, after which it would level off at around 4.4 TWh: 4,414 GWh in 2029 and 4,408 GWh in 2030. Thermal power plants would generate 21,957 GWh in 2027 and 24,283 GWh in 2030, 10.6% more, while the gas they burn would fall from 2.416 to 1.572 billion cubic metres.

Gas. Also drawing on the budget package, the Report news agency said Azerbaijan's natural gas production is forecast at 16.3 billion cubic metres in 2027, 239.2 million cubic metres (1.5%) above this year's forecast. The 2027 budget assumes an oil price of $65 per barrel, according to AzerNews.

The gas network. During the debate on the budget package in the parliamentary committee on economic policy, Finance Minister Sahil Babayev said the draft makes no provision for expanding the gas distribution network and that SOCAR could finance the work from its available funds or investment resources. The public investment programme has been allocated 5.3 billion manats ($3.12 billion); “we expect a clearer picture to emerge toward the end of the year,” Babayev said, as quoted by Report.

Context. The budget document calls for accelerating the “green” transition, raising the share of renewables in electricity generation, adding new generating capacity and modernising the grid, as well as “green energy” zones and corridors and expanded renewable energy exports, according to Trend.