Weak wind in Great Britain: NESO called for more capacity, with an estimated margin shortfall of 1,388 MW

Britain's energy system operator, the National Energy System Operator (NESO), issued an Electricity Margin Notice on Sunday evening for Monday morning, 9 November, after wind generation fell across much of Europe. According to the notices published on the Elexon BMRS platform, the warning was withdrawn on Monday at 9:11, after the estimated shortfall had gradually narrowed.

The figures. The first notice, issued on Sunday at 19:15, covered the period 06:00–11:00 and indicated a margin shortfall of 1,388 MW, with a contingency requirement of 808 MW. At the 04:15 review the window narrowed to 08:00–11:00 and the shortfall fell to 500 MW; by 08:24 it stood at 200 MW. According to Eastern Eye, such warnings have traditionally covered cold winter evenings rather than mornings.

What the operator says. The notice is a routine tool through which NESO asks the market to make more capacity available and does not signal imminent outages, the standard text of the warning states. A spokesperson quoted by Eastern Eye said it was "not a warning of power cuts" and that Great Britain's electricity system "remains secure".

Prices. The lack of wind was felt across north-western Europe. According to Oilprice, the day-ahead price for Monday delivery was €334/MWh in France, the highest since December 2022, and at €345.64/MWh in Germany, with evening peaks above €600/MWh. On the gas market, the Dutch month-ahead contract rose by €0.91 to €86.50/MWh, Eastern Eye reports.

Context. In its winter outlook published in October, NESO estimated for the 2026–2027 season a surplus of 5.9 GW above peak demand, a margin of 9.5%. Wind and solar output was expected to remain below normal at least until the middle of the week, according to Oilprice.

Real-time data for the country are on the country page