Sweden: Ei proposes a 1.99% rate for power grids in 2028–2031, and companies warn investment will fall

Energimarknadsinspektionen (Ei), Sweden's energy market regulator, presented on 2 November 2026 its proposal for how the allowed revenues of electricity grid companies will be calculated in the 2028–2031 regulatory period. The proposal changes the rate of return used in the calculation, the valuation of grid assets and the treatment of connection fees.

What Ei proposes. According to Energinyheter.se, the preliminary rate is 1.99% in real terms, before tax, and some parameters would be calculated on an eight-year historical series rather than on forecasts. New investments after 2028 would be valued at actual acquisition cost adjusted for inflation, instead of the cost of building an equivalent asset today; existing assets keep their current valuation. A TOTEX model would create incentives for cost efficiency.

The figures. According to Fastighetstidningen, citing Ei, revenue caps for 2028–2031 would be about SEK 380 billion, roughly the same as in 2024–2027, but about SEK 37 billion (9%) lower than if the old method continued. Companies can, however, also collect about SEK 40 billion left unused from earlier periods, so Ei does not expect a quick effect on tariffs. According to Ei's figures, household grid fees rose by 115% between 2005 and 2026, compared with 49% for consumer prices.

Reactions. For the industry association Energiföretagen Sverige, the rate would end up at an "extremely low" level compared with the past, said Tomas Malmström, head of grid issues. "With delayed investments, electrification is held back," said chief executive Åsa Pettersson, warning of a maintenance backlog that customers would ultimately pay for. On the other side, the property owners' organisation Fastighetsägarna argues that keeping the old valuation for existing assets leaves companies too much room to charge.

What comes next. Consultation comments are due by 23 November 2026, the new law enters into force on 1 January 2027, and decisions on the revenue caps must be taken by 31 October 2027, according to Fastighetstidningen.

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